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WORLD FUTURES

Meaning Of The 21st Century. James Martin (Riverhead/Penguin, Aug 2006/400p).
The 21st century is seen as a deep river canyon, with humanity’s rafters facing faster and rougher whitewater. As we change from nature-based evolution to human-based evolution, we face such challenges as healing the planet, ending poverty, and controlling technology.

Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence. Peter Schwartz (Gotham/Penguin, June 2003/247p).
Chair of Global Business Network views surprises in the next 25 years as the norm, but many can be anticipated: the US as "rogue superpower" in a truly new world order, return of the Long Boom, major sci/tech breakthroughs, global climate change, and older and healthier people.

Powerful Times: Rising to the Challenge of Our Uncertain World Eamonn Kelly (Wharton School/Pearson Prentice Hall, Oct 2005/275p).
CEO and president of Global Business Network identifies seven matching pairs of forces that will grow in the next decade: clarity/craziness, secular/sacred, US power/vulnerability, tech acceleration/pushback, intangible/physical, prosperity/decline, and people/planet. A fresh and powerful frame for understanding global promise and peril.

High Noon: Twenty Global Problems, Twenty Years to Solve Them, June 2002/241p).
World Bank VP considers top global concerns involving the global commons, requiring a global commitment, or needing a global regulatory approach.

A New World Order Anne-Marie Slaughter (Princeton U Press, March 2004/ 341p).
On the emerging world of government networks as a new and desirable paradigm. These different lenses make it possible to imagine a genuinely new set of possibilities for a future disaggregated world order.

Anticipate the World You Want: Learning for Alternative Futures by Marsha Lynne Rhea. Scarecrow Education. 2005. 126 pages. Paperback.
A senior futurist with the Institute for Alternative Futures, Marsha Lynne Rhea has written an important introduction to future thinking and methodologies in a learning environment. Anticipate the World You Want will help both students and teachers at the forefront of foresight.

The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World
by Peter Schwartz. Doubleday/Currency. 1991. 258 pages. Paperback.
Charting the course of your future or that of your company requires intuition and creativity. Schwartz shows how composing and using scenarios can help you visualize and prepare for a better future.

 The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization Thomas Homer Dixon Knopf Canada; 1 edition (Oct 31 2006/448p) With easy-to-understand terminology and a mountain of research, Toronto author Homer-Dixon (The Ingenuity Gap) faces down imminent, unavoidable and catastrophic threats to modern civilization, keeping a wary eye on mankind's chances to adapt. Methodically illustrating how the modern world is doomed to suffer a large-scale breakdown, Homer-Dixon enumerates the "tectonic stresses" on civilization-population growth disparities, energy scarcity, environmental damage, and economic instabilities-and the "multipliers"-increasing global connectivity and small groups' ability to enact destruction-that help propel them. Woven throughout are well-illustrated comparisons between the current state of industrialized nations-especially the U.S.-with the unsustainable complexities, and subsequent downfall, of the Roman Empire.

WORLD ECONOMY/DEVELOPMENT

The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century (Updated/Expanded). Thomas L. Friedman (Farrar, Straus and Giroux, April 2006/593p).
First published in April 2005 at a mere 488 pages, both editions of this engaging account--of ten forces that have flattened the global economic playing field--have been near the top of the best-seller list for nearly two years. The new edition adds 105 pages and emphasizes what we should do, e.g, better education and new skills.

Why Globalization Works Martin Wolf (Yale U Press, June 2004/398p).
A good introduction to the pro-globalization view, arguing why a global market economy makes sense in the long run, and why the critics are wrong.

Collapse Of Globalism And The Reinvention Of The World John Raulston Saul (Viking, May 2005, 320p) Globalization, like many great geopolitical ideologies before it, is now officially dead. Contrary to the hopes of those who supported the global ideal, the years since the end of the Cold War have seen the return of nationalism, often is quite vociferous forms. Instead of surrendering (or sharing, depending on your point of view) sovereignty, governments and citizens are reasserting their national interests. In this groundbreaking, exhilarating book, the distinguished philosopher John Ralston Saul examines where we go from here. His scintillating investigation into the collapse of globalism is essential reading for all who wish to understand the geopolitical chasm we are about to bridge.

The Dream Society : How the Coming Shift from Information to Imagination Will Transform Your Business
by Rolf Jensen. McGraw-Hill. 1999. 230 pages. Paperback
The Information Age has dramatically transformed the world's economy, but an even more radical shift is under way: the "dream" society, built on imagination and storytelling. Businesses will increasingly focus on touching the emotional side of customers for their future products and services, and marketing will increasingly become a process of engaging people through stories, myths, and legends. This book by a leading Danish futurist offers a clear blueprint for positioning your business for this new era.

Experience Economy, The: Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage
by B. Joseph Pine II and James H. Gilmore. Harvard Business School Press. 1999. 254 pages.
We are on the threshold of a new economic era in which services will need to be made into memorable experiences for customers if the businesses providing those services hope to stay in business in the twenty-first century. Drawing examples from Disney and other successful experience-marketers, the authors demonstrate the growing opportunities for creative thinkers in business.

SECURITY

Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats. (2nd edition) Joseph Cirincione (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 2005/490p).
Rejecting the overly broad "WMD" label, this authoritative and detailed assessment describes which nations have nuclear, bio, or chemical weapons—and the ballistic missiles of 12 countries that can deliver then 1,000 to >5,000 km.

New Global Dangers: Changing Dimensions of International Security. Ed. by Michael E. Brown (MIT Press, Dec 2004/546p).
Top-rate scholarly essays on weapons and security, nonmilitary aspects of security, and transnational actors and security. Excellent companion to Grave New World: Security Challenges in the 21st Century. ed. by Michael E. Brown (Georgetown U Press, Aug 2003/342p; 25:12/551), a survey of factors that will shape 21C security: weapons, vulnerable infotech, environmental change, etc. The outlook for the next decade is "gloomy at best."

The Roots of Terrorism. Ed. by Louise Richardson (Routledge, May 2006/203p).
The Club de Madrid, a group of 57 former heads of state, convened a 2005 Summit to consider a common agenda for democratic nations to most effectively confront terrorism. Key proposals for the long-term: reduce the reservoir of resentment, mitigate negative impacts of globalization, provide alternatives to Islamic education, etc.

War No More: Eliminating Conflict in the Nuclear Age. Robert Hinde and Joseph Rotblat (Pluto Press, Oct 2003/228p).
Tools to eliminate war include democracy, international law, arms control, promoting international well-being, education for peace, and early warning and conflict resolution. An outstanding and authoritative overview.

State of the World 2005: Redefining Global Security. Michael Renner et al. (W.W. Norton, Jan 2005/237p).
The 22nd annual edition of this vital overview focuses on Redefining National Security by reducing nuclear weapons and conventional small arms, containing infectious disease, managing water conflict, changing the oil economy, and setting principles for a more secure world.

ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate in Crisis and the Fate of Humanity. James Lovelock (Basic Books, Aug 2006/177p).
A major scientist warns that Earth's declining health is our most important concern and that accelerating climate change is humanity's greatest trial. "What is at risk is civilization," and we must act now. The great earth system, Gaia, is trapped in a vicious cycle of positive feedback, where greater heat leads to even greater heat.

The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight. Thom Hartman (Harmony, October 2000 / 336 pages) A call to consciousness combining spirituality and ecology that offers hope for the future.
As the world''s population explodes, cultures and species are wiped out, and we have now reached the halfway point of our supplies of oil, humans the world over are confronting difficult choices about how to create a future that works. Thom Hartmann proposes that the only lasting solution to the crises we face is to re-learn the lessons our ancient ancestors knew -- those which allowed them to live sustainably for hundreds of thousands of years -- but which we''ve forgotten.
Hartmann shows how to find this new yet ancient way of seeing the world and the life on and in it, allowing us to touch that place where the survival of humanity may be found.

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. National Research Council (National Academy Press, May 2002/230p).
The new paradigm of an abruptly changing climate system has become well-established over the past decade. Greenhouse warming makes possible major regional or global climate events in decades—or even years.

Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Our Human Planet Summary for Decision Makers. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Island Press, Dec 2005/109p).
The MEA involved 1,360 experts from 95 countries in surveying ecosystem change and consequences for human well-being, in the face of 3 billion more people and a quadrupling of the world economy by 2050. Considers 78 response options to substantial and largely irreversible biodiversity loss.

**A skeptical view  Unstoppable Global Warming : Every 1,500 Years Fred Singer ( Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. ,Mar 25 2007) Singer and Avery present in popular language supported by in-depth scientific evidence the compelling concept that global temperatures have been rising mostly or entirely because of a natural cycle. Unstoppable Global Warming explains why we're warming, why it's not very dangerous, and why we can't stop it anyway.

 Rough Guide To Climate Change Rough Guides; 1 edition (Oct 31 2006/320p) The Rough Guide to Climate Change is a complete, unbiased guide to one of the most pressing problems facing humanity. From the current situation and back ground science to the government sceptics and possible solutions, this book covers the whole subject. Th e guide looks at: Visible symptoms of change from a warming planet How global warming works. The evolution of our atmosphere over the last 4.5 billion years What computer simulations of climate reveal about our past, present, and future The sceptics: Who are they? What are their grounds for disagreeing with the crowd?

SOCIETY

Extending Opportunities: How Active Social Policy Can Benefit Us All. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, March 2005/196p).
Taking a "life course perspective," OECD prescribes social policies to pro-actively invest in children, adults, and the elderly, not merely treating distress after it arises. An enlightened, civilized, cost-saving, and forward-looking view. (FS 27:10/500) Buy

The New Politics of Old Age Policy. Ed. by Robert B. Hudson (Johns Hopkins, April 2005/309p).
The New Politics of Old Age Policy is now more highly contested, as costs escalate and more people live longer. Essays address pensions, old age inequality, Social Security, Medicare, senior housing, and local tax levies to support older people. (FS 27:6/294) Buy

Social Inequality. Edited by Kathryn M. Neckerman (Russell Sage Foundation, June 2004/1,017p).
The definitive volume on growing inequality in the US, documenting gaps in wealth, income, family/neighborhood conditions, investments in children, health care, education, and political influence. A major social trend, too often overlooked. (FS 27:2/091) Buy

The Information Age: Economy, Society and Culture. Vol. 2: The Power of Identity (New Edition). Manuel Castells (Blackwell Publishing, Jan 2004/537p).
An extensive update and expansion of the 1997 edition on the construction of identity in the network society, religious fundamentalism, nations and nationalisms in the age of globalization, ethnic unbonding, the dissolution of shared identities, and political democracy as an empty shell. (FS 25:11/512) Buy

Healing America: Values and Vision for the 21st Century. Paul Simon (Orbis Books, Oct 2003/176p).
The distinguished former Senator from Illinois, recently deceased, urges a focus on renewing US values to build a better society and a better world. Chapters on equality, self-restraint, participation, education, respect for law, humility, compassion, courage, protecting our earth, and integrity. Simple and fresh. (FS 25:11/515) Buy

Futures of Religions. Edited by William Sims Bainbridge (Futures, Special Issue, Nov 2004).
Many social scientists and futurists once thought that the world was rapidly becoming more secular. Not so, although the prediction may be premature. Essays discuss long-term membership in religious denominations (1900 to 2025) and the shrinking proportion of "nonreligious," the future of Islam, new religions, forms of "green" religion, and scenarios of religion and science. (FS 27:3/101)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Ray Kurzweil (Viking, Sept 2005/652p).
The "singularity" is a period several decades ahead when technological change will be so rapid and deep that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Technology will allow us to design bodies and brains that will last longer and perform better. A huge, audacious book.

Nanohype: The Truth Behind the Nanotechnology Buzz. David M. Berube (Prometheus Books, Jan 2006/521p).
Hyperbole and hysteria are chronicled for pro and con sides, in this balanced and readable survey of nanotech applications, government initiatives, promotional reports, nano-industry entrepreneurs, pro and con interest groups, reports on nanohazards, societal and ethical implications, etc. (FS 28:4/185) Buy

Infinite Worlds: An Illustrated Voyage to Planets Beyond Our Sun. Ray Villard and Lynnette R. Cook (U of California Press, June 2005/252p).
The universe has at least 100 billion galaxies, each with some 100 billion stars, and there may be 1 billion or more rocky planets the size of Earth. The extraordinary illustrations herein offer a glimpse of possible landscapes and atmospheres that may support life. (FS 27:11/529) Buy

METHODS TO SHAPE THE FUTURE

Futuring: The Exploration of the Future. Edward Cornish (World Future Society, April 2004/313p).
A wide-ranging introduction for high school and lower college levels, with chapters on earlier explorers of the future, six supertrends, understanding change, methods, scenarios, wild cards, and inventing the future. (FS 26:3/147) Buy